Ronald Aylmer Fisher. Tea and statistics.

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Ronald Aylmer Fisher. Tea and statistics.

No matter in which sphere a scientists is specialized, he would always use statistical data for his researches. Naturally, rudimentary statistical data appeared already in ancient countries, but modern principles of statistics was developed not a very long time ago, only in the beginning of XX century. And that happened thanks to Aylmer Fisher and his dislike towards bohemia’s peacockery.

Fisher was a good student at school, and he even got a medal for winning a mathematical competition. Naturally, after he graduated from the university, he made up his mind to devote his life to science and so he started working in Rothamsted biological laboratory, which is still the leading laboratory devoted to researches of agrarian problems in England.

In the begging of the second decade of XX century there was formed a friendly and solidary staff in the laboratory, and the leader of the staff turned out to be a young and beautiful researcher of seaweed Muriel Bristol, who managed to unite all the co-workers under the aegis of shared afternoon tea parties. Not a single day could be passed without those tea parties. During tea drinking scientists shared new results of their researches, told their colleagues their ideas in a free and easy atmosphere of a small and decent tea party. It’s worth mentioning that Aylmer Fisher loved both those everyday tea symposiums and his work in the research laboratory.

But unfortunately, once tea drinking was spoiled because of a small conflict with Muriel. She asked for a cup of tea with milk, and Aylmer gladly made her a cup of tea. But the girl turned up her nose and refused to drink from the cup which Aylmer politely gave her. At first Fisher was simply surprised, but when Muriel explained the reason of her refusal, he got outraged. The thing was that Bristol was from an aristocratic family and her family firmly believed that you should add tea to milk. Only plebeians can add milk to tea!

Fisher was a young scientist and he didn’t accept out of date ridiculous prejudices (especially class prejudices), thus he tried his best to convince Muriel that in both cases tea would taste just the same and that Muriel’s behaviour was just an idle whim. But Bristol wouldn’t agree with the scientist, she claimed that she could tell the difference in taste.

Since everyone in the room who witness their conversation were scientists and Englishmen at the same time, it was decided to agree to bet and carry out a blind experiment, during which the truthfulness of one of the participants would be proved.

The bets were made and the experiment began. Aylmer Fisher was incredibly surprised to find out that in spite of the fact that in all the cups proportions of tea and milk were the same, Muriel still could easily define in which cup tea was added to milk and in which cup milk was added to tea.

Fisher lost the bet. He apologized, but he didn’t lose heart. The experiment which they carried out that day made him think about statistical researches in a new way, from a different angle. In 1925 he published one of the most famous work on statistics “Statistical methods for scientists”. Some of Fisher’s statistical methods are still fundamental in some statistical researches.